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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,0x - 6,7x | 6,3x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,6x - 6,1x | 5,9x |
Fair Value | $13,74 - $15,61 | $14,68 |
Upside | -23,8% - -13,5% | -18,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Japan Communications Inc. | 9424 | TSE:9424 |
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation | 9432 | TSE:9432 |
MTN Group Limited | MTNO.F | OTCPK:MTNO.F |
SoftBank Corp. | 9434 | TSE:9434 |
Okinawa Cellular Telephone Company | 9436 | TSE:9436 |
KDDI Corporation | KDDI.Y | OTCPK:KDDI.Y |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
9424 | 9432 | MTNO.F | 9434 | 9436 | KDDI.Y | ||
TSE:9424 | TSE:9432 | OTCPK:MTNO.F | TSE:9434 | TSE:9436 | OTCPK:KDDI.Y | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 3.8% | 2.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 0.6% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 8.3% | -4.4% | 9.6% | 3.3% | -2.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 6.3% | 7.8% | -22.5% | 33.6% | 3.2% | -3.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 4.6% | 25.1% | 39.8% | 26.7% | 29.3% | 31.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 13.4% | 26.0% | 38.4% | 25.7% | 28.6% | 30.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 17.8% | 26.6% | 34.9% | 26.4% | 30.1% | 28.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 14.0% | 26.8% | 34.9% | 26.4% | 28.9% | 28.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.77x | 1.75x | 1.63x | 1.96x | 2.38x | 2.15x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.8x | 6.5x | 4.7x | 7.4x | 8.2x | 7.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 23.9x | 12.2x | 7.1x | 13.1x | 11.4x | 13.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 7.4x | 19.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 4.1x | 5.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 6.3x | 6.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,638,446 | 1,638,446 | 1,638,446 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,862,347 | 10,381,418 | 10,900,489 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,294,875) | (2,294,875) | (2,294,875) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 7,567,472 | 8,086,543 | 8,605,614 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 3,981.2 | 3,981.2 | 3,981.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,900.82 | 2,031.20 | 2,161.58 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/USD | 143.4 | 143.4 | 143.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.26 | 14.16 | 15.07 | 18.04 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -26.5% | -21.5% | -16.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 9424 | 9432 | MTNO.F | 9434 | 9436 | KDDI.Y | |
Enterprise Value | 23,926 | 24,020,479 | 279,737 | 12,484,046 | 194,708 | 12,593,961 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,730 | 1,198,183 | 39,263 | 1,890,824 | 3,086 | 900,929 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 160 | 430,608 | 28,878 | 3,653,910 | 3,099 | 1,578,744 | |
(-) Debt | (45) | (12,092,802) | (158,322) | (6,215,808) | (12) | (4,232,052) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (60) | (1,120,894) | (15,002) | (1,518,706) | (2,570) | (542,496) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 26,711 | 12,435,574 | 174,554 | 10,294,266 | 198,311 | 10,299,086 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 165.9 | 82,738.4 | 1,806.6 | 47,526.6 | 47.0 | 3,981.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 161.00 | 150.30 | 96.62 | 216.60 | 4,220.00 | 2,586.95 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.69 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.40 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 161.00 | 150.30 | 5.17 | 216.60 | 4,220.00 | 18.04 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | USD | JPY | JPY | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.69 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.40 |