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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4,5x - 5,0x | 4,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,7x | 5,4x |
Fair Value | $1,90 - $2,14 | $2,02 |
Upside | 4,3% - 17,6% | 11,0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE5 | BOVESPA:CPLE5 |
CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | ELET5 | BOVESPA:ELET5 |
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | GEPA4 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 |
Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CIG | NYSE:CIG |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CPLE5 | CPFE3 | ELET5 | GEPA4 | NEOE3 | CIG | ||
BOVESPA:CPLE5 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:ELET5 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | NYSE:CIG | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 4.7% | 15.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 17.6% | 19.0% | |
3Y CAGR | -5.4% | 13.9% | -12.6% | -19.6% | 7.8% | 12.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.2% | -0.6% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 15.8% | 21.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 23.2% | 26.8% | 47.2% | 62.1% | 24.5% | 19.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 21.8% | 32.9% | 40.0% | 58.5% | 25.2% | 21.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 22.8% | 30.4% | 41.3% | 70.1% | 26.4% | 23.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 22.8% | 30.4% | 41.3% | 70.1% | 26.4% | 23.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.83x | 1.71x | 2.34x | 2.72x | 1.42x | 1.04x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 5.6x | 5.7x | 4.8x | 5.4x | 4.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.9x | 6.8x | 7.4x | 7.8x | 6.9x | 5.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.8x | 5.6x | 8.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 4.4x | 4.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 4.8x | 5.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 9,420 | 9,420 | 9,420 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 42,675 | 44,921 | 47,167 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (7,102) | (7,102) | (7,102) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 35,573 | 37,819 | 40,065 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 3,176.8 | 3,176.8 | 3,176.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 11.20 | 11.90 | 12.61 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/USD | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.97 | 2.10 | 2.22 | 1.82 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 8.3% | 15.1% | 22.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CPLE5 | CPFE3 | ELET5 | GEPA4 | NEOE3 | CIG | |
Enterprise Value | 31,634 | 73,225 | 76,385 | 3,469 | 70,149 | 39,949 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,163 | 3,547 | 30,113 | 460 | 7,826 | 2,256 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 4,137 | 726 | 32,120 | 2 | 2,396 | 3,356 | |
(-) Debt | (17,575) | (31,555) | (79,414) | (769) | (53,536) | (12,709) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 38 | (1,063) | (137) | 0 | (109) | (5) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 22,397 | 44,880 | 59,068 | 3,163 | 26,726 | 32,847 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,033.7 | 1,152.3 | 787.6 | 94.4 | 1,213.2 | 3,176.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 11.01 | 38.95 | 75.00 | 33.49 | 22.03 | 10.34 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.68 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.01 | 38.95 | 75.00 | 33.49 | 22.03 | 1.82 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.68 |