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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9,4x - 10,4x | 9,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10,4x - 11,5x | 11,0x |
| Fair Value | ₹345,18 - ₹392,45 | ₹368,82 |
| Upside | 13,5% - 29,1% | 21,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited | ONGC | NSEI:ONGC |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited | HINDPETRO | NSEI:HINDPETRO |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | IOC | NSEI:IOC |
| Reliance Industries Limited | RELIANCE | NSEI:RELIANCE |
| Chevron Corporation | CVX | NYSE:CVX |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited | BPCL | NSEI:BPCL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ONGC | HINDPETRO | IOC | RELIANCE | CVX | BPCL | ||
| NSEI:ONGC | NSEI:HINDPETRO | NSEI:IOC | NSEI:RELIANCE | NYSE:CVX | NSEI:BPCL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.6% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 17.3% | 24.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 35.6% | 16.4% | 27.1% | 27.8% | 13.1% | 28.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -22.5% | -50.3% | -76.0% | 1.2% | -13.6% | -49.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.1% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 4.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.7% | -2.2% | 3.0% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 1.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.5% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 4.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.80x | 0.34x | 0.45x | 2.02x | 1.12x | 0.39x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 9.1x | 9.6x | 11.8x | 5.5x | 6.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 14.9x | 19.4x | 17.0x | 9.4x | 8.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 14.9x | 19.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 10.1x | 96.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 9.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 200,888 | 200,888 | 200,888 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,894,088 | 1,993,776 | 2,093,465 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (450,752) | (450,752) | (450,752) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,443,336 | 1,543,024 | 1,642,713 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,338.5 | 4,338.5 | 4,338.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 332.68 | 355.66 | 378.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: INR/INR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 332.68 | 355.66 | 378.64 | 304.05 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.4% | 17.0% | 24.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ONGC | HINDPETRO | IOC | RELIANCE | CVX | BPCL | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,623,374 | 1,509,549 | 3,432,627 | 17,888,910 | 211,672 | 1,769,875 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 433,822 | 56,104 | 111,222 | 2,147,900 | 6,785 | 138,052 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47,438 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,914,893) | (725,482) | (1,634,009) | (3,575,250) | (29,611) | (588,804) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (839) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,142,302 | 840,171 | 1,909,840 | 16,461,560 | 235,445 | 1,319,123 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 12,580.3 | 2,127.8 | 13,771.6 | 12,706.7 | 1,760.6 | 4,338.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 249.78 | 394.85 | 138.68 | 1,295.50 | 133.73 | 304.05 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 249.78 | 394.85 | 138.68 | 1,295.50 | 133.73 | 304.05 | |
| Trading Currency | INR | INR | INR | INR | USD | INR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |